The response of soil respiration to short-term environmental factors changes has been well studied, whereas the influences of long-term soil microclimate changes on soil respiration are still highly unclear, especially in tropical ecosystems. We hypothesized that soil carbon accumulation in southern China, especially in mature forest during recent years, partly resulted from reducing soil respiration rates. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed the temporal trends and variations of air temperature, soil temperature and soil water content (hereafter referred to as SWC), and then estimated soil respiration rates in the 1980s and 2000s with soil temperature and SWC by regression model in three subtropical forests which are at early-, mid-, and advanced-successional stages, respectively, in Dinghushan Nature Reserve (hereafter referred to as DNR) in southern China. The annual mean ambient air temperature increased by 1.03 ± 0.15°C in the last 50 years (1954-2007) in DNR. Rainfall amount in the corresponding period did not change significantly, but rainfall pattern changed remarkably in the last three decades (1978-2007). Soil temperature is correlated with ambient air temperature. The average SWC was 36.8 ± 8.4%, 34.7 ± 8.1% and 29.6 ± 8.1% in the 1980s, and then dropped sharply to 23.6 ± 2.9%, 20.5 ± 4.2% and 17.6 ± 3.9% in the 2000s, for the advanced, mid- and early-successional forests, respectively. Concurrent changes of soil temperature and SWC may have a negative effect on soil respiration rates for all three forests, implicated that soil respiration may have a negative feedback to regional climate change and carbon could be sequestered in subtropical forests in southern China.