Transmission clustering drives the onward spread of the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men in Quebec

J Infect Dis. 2011 Oct 1;204(7):1115-9. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jir468.

Abstract

Phylodynamic analysis and epidemiologic data identified 3 patterns of spread of primary human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection (PHI) among men who have sex with men (2001-2009): 420 unique PHIs, 102 small clusters (2-4 PHIs per cluster, n = 280), and 46 large clusters (5-31 PHIs per cluster, n = 450). Large clusters disproportionately increased from 25.2% of PHIs in 2005 to 39.1% in 2009 (χ(2) = 33.9, P < .001). Scalar expansion of large clusters over 11 months (interquartile range, 3.5-25.5 months) correlated with cluster membership size (r(2) = 0.174, F = 4.424, P = .047). PHI cohort data revealed variations in social networks and risk behaviors among the 3 groups, suggesting the need for tailored prevention measures.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Bayes Theorem
  • Cluster Analysis
  • Genes, pol
  • HIV Infections / epidemiology
  • HIV Infections / genetics
  • HIV Infections / transmission*
  • HIV-1 / genetics*
  • Homosexuality, Male*
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Phylogeography
  • Quebec / epidemiology
  • Risk-Taking
  • Sequence Analysis, DNA
  • Sexual Behavior
  • Social Support
  • Time Factors