New contraceptive methods provide greater choice in terms of effectiveness, management of side-effects, convenience and frequency of administration and flexibility, but make the decisions about contraception more complex. There are limited data on the factors that determine women's choices among these alternatives, to inform providers about the factors which are most important to women, or to predict uptake of new products. This paper reports on a choice experiment designed to elicit women's preferences in relation to prescribed contraception and to forecast the impact of the introduction of two new products into the Australian market. A generalised multinomial logit model is estimated and used in the simulation exercise. The model forecasts that the hormonal patch would be well received among women, achieving a greater market share than current non-pill products, but the vaginal ring would have limited appeal.
Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.