In the real-time tumor-tracking radiotherapy system, fluoroscopy is used to determine the real-time position of internal fiducial markers. The pattern recognition score (PRS) ranging from 0 to 100 is computed by a template pattern matching technique in order to determine the marker position on the fluoroscopic image. The PRS depends on the quality of the fluoroscopic image. However, the fluoroscopy parameters such as tube voltage, current and exposure duration are selected manually and empirically in the clinical situation. This may result in an unnecessary imaging dose from the fluoroscopy or loss of the marker because of too much or insufficient x-ray exposure. In this study, a novel optimization method is proposed in order to minimize the fluoroscopic dose while keeping the image quality usable for marker tracking. The PRS can be predicted in a region where the marker appears to move in the fluoroscopic image by the proposed method. The predicted PRS can be utilized to judge whether the marker can be tracked with accuracy. In this paper, experiments were performed to show the feasibility of the PRS prediction method under various conditions. The predicted PRS showed good agreement with the measured PRS. The root mean square error between the predicted PRS and the measured PRS was within 1.44. An experiment using a motion controller and an anthropomorphic chest phantom was also performed in order to imitate a clinical fluoroscopy situation. The result shows that the proposed prediction method is expected to be applicable in a real clinical situation.