Objectives: To describe Aggregate Demand Index (ADI) trends from 1999-2010; to compare ADI time trends to concurrent data for US unemployment levels, US entry-level pharmacy graduates, and US retail prescription growth rate; and to determine which variables were significant predictors of ADI.
Methods: Annual ADI data (dependent variable) were analyzed against annual unemployment rates, annual number of pharmacy graduates, and annual prescription growth rate (independent variables).
Results: ADI data trended toward lower demand levels for pharmacists since late 2006, paralleling the US economic downturn. National ADI data were most highly correlated with unemployment (p < 0.001), then graduates (p < 0.006), then prescription growth rate (p < 0.093). A hierarchical model with the 3 variables was significant (p = 0.019), but only unemployment was a significant ADI predictor. Unemployment and ADI also were significantly related at the regional, division, and state levels.
Conclusions: The ADI is strongly linked to US unemployment rates. The relationship suggests that an improving economy might coincide with increased pharmacist demand. Predictable increases in future graduates and other factors support revisiting the modeling process as new data accumulate.
Keywords: Aggregate Demand Index; employment; pharmacist shortage; pharmacy graduates; prescription drug growth; unemployment; workforce.