The effect of atmospheric thermal conditions and urban thermal pollution on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Bangladesh

Abstract

This study assessed the effect of temperature and thermal atmospheric conditions on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Bangladesh. In particular, differences in the response to elevated temperatures between urban and rural areas were investigated. Generalized additive models (GAMs) for daily death counts, adjusted for trend, season, day of the month and age were separately fitted for urban and rural areas. Breakpoint models were applied for determining the increase in mortality above and below a threshold (equivalent) temperature. Generally, a 'V'-shaped (equivalent) temperature-mortality curve with increasing mortality at low and high temperatures was observed. Particularly, urban areas suffered from heat-related mortality with a steep increase above a specific threshold. This adverse heat effect may well increase with ongoing urbanization and the intensification of the urban heat island due to the densification of building structures. Moreover, rising temperatures due to climate change could aggravate thermal stress.