The impact of climate on Leptospirosis in São Paulo, Brazil

Int J Biometeorol. 2012 Mar;56(2):233-41. doi: 10.1007/s00484-011-0419-4. Epub 2011 Mar 3.

Abstract

In this work, we correlate the daily number of human leptospirosis cases with several climatic factors. We used a negative binomial model that considers hospital daily admissions due to leptospirosis as the dependent variable, and the climatic variables of daily precipitation pattern, and maximum and minimum temperature as independent variables. We calculated the monthly leptospirosis admission probabilities from the precipitation and maximum temperature variables. The month of February showed the highest probability, although values were also high during the spring months. The month of February also showed the highest number of hospital admissions. Another interesting result is that, for every 20 mm precipitation, there was an average increase of 31.5% in hospital admissions. Additionally, the relative risk of leptospirosis varied from 1.1 to 2.0 when the precipitation varied from 20 to 140 mm.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Brazil / epidemiology
  • Cities
  • Climate*
  • Hospitalization / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Leptospirosis / epidemiology*
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Rain
  • Regression Analysis
  • Risk
  • Temperature
  • Urban Health / statistics & numerical data