A novel field-based approach to validate the use of network models for disease spread between dairy herds

Epidemiol Infect. 2011 Dec;139(12):1863-74. doi: 10.1017/S0950268811000070. Epub 2011 Feb 15.

Abstract

The introduction of a centralized system for recording cattle movements in the UK has provided a framework for network-based models for disease spread. However, there are many types of non-reportable contacts between farms which may play a role in disease spread. The lack of real pathogen data with which to test network models makes it difficult to assess whether reported data adequately captures the risk-potential network between farms and improves the accuracy of disease forecasts. A novel multi-disciplinary approach is described whereby network-based models, built upon reported cattle movements and non-reportable local contacts between study farms, are parameterized using field data on bovine Staphylococcus aureus strains. Reported cattle movements were found to play a role in strain spread between farms, but other contacts via farm visitors were also correlated with strain distribution, suggesting that parameterizing contact networks using cattle-tracing data alone may not adequately capture the disease dynamics.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Behavior, Animal
  • Cattle
  • Cluster Analysis
  • Dairying
  • England
  • Female
  • Locomotion
  • Mastitis, Bovine / transmission*
  • Models, Biological*
  • Neural Networks, Computer*
  • Risk Assessment
  • Staphylococcal Infections / transmission
  • Staphylococcal Infections / veterinary*
  • Staphylococcus aureus / isolation & purification*
  • Surveys and Questionnaires