In the H.264/AVC FRExt coder, the coding performance of Intra coding significantly overcomes the previous still image coding standards, like JPEG2000, thanks to a massive use of spatial prediction. Unfortunately, the adoption of an extensive set of predictors induces a significant increase of the computational complexity required by the rate-distortion optimization routine. The paper presents a complexity reduction strategy that aims at reducing the computational load of the Intra coding with a small loss in the compression performance. The proposed algorithm relies on selecting a reduced set of prediction modes according to their probabilities, which are estimated adopting a belief-propagation procedure. Experimental results show that the proposed method permits saving up to 60 % of the coding time required by an exhaustive rate-distortion optimization method with a negligible loss in performance. Moreover, it permits an accurate control of the computational complexity unlike other methods where the computational complexity depends upon the coded sequence.