Outbreak properties of epidemic models: the roles of temporal forcing and stochasticity on pathogen invasion dynamics

Abstract

Despite temporally forced transmission driving many infectious diseases, analytical insight into its role when combined with stochastic disease processes and non-linear transmission has received little attention. During disease outbreaks, however, the absence of saturation effects early on in well-mixed populations mean that epidemic models may be linearised and we can calculate outbreak properties, including the effects of temporal forcing on fade-out, disease emergence and system dynamics, via analysis of the associated master equations. The approach is illustrated for the unforced and forced SIR and SEIR epidemic models. We demonstrate that in unforced models, initial conditions (and any uncertainty therein) play a stronger role in driving outbreak properties than the basic reproduction number R0, while the same properties are highly sensitive to small amplitude temporal forcing, particularly when R0 is small. Although illustrated for the SIR and SEIR models, the master equation framework may be applied to more realistic models, although analytical intractability scales rapidly with increasing system dimensionality. One application of these methods is obtaining a better understanding of the rate at which vector-borne and waterborne infectious diseases invade new regions given variability in environmental drivers, a particularly important question when addressing potential shifts in the global distribution and intensity of infectious diseases under climate change.