Predictive factors for prolonged survival in recurrent endometrial carcinoma: Implications for follow-up protocol

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the role of follow-up after curative treatment in endometrial carcinoma, we determined predictive factors for prolonged survival after recurrence.

Methods: We retrospectively studied patients with endometrioid endometrial carcinoma who had a follow-up appointment consisting of pelvic examination, vaginal cytology, imaging and CA-125 measurements and who developed recurrence. Possible prognostic factors were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses.

Results: Fifty-one patients developed recurrence. The median time from initial treatment to recurrence was 12 months (range, 3-119 months). A total of 25 (49%) and 45 (88%) recurrences were detected within 1 and 3 years of initial treatment, respectively. Twenty (39%) patients were symptomatic, while 31 (61%) were asymptomatic. The median survival time of symptomatic patients was longer than that of asymptomatic patients (27 vs. 12 months); however, the difference was not statistically significant (P = 0.42). No recurrences were detected by vaginal cytology. Of asymptomatic patients with low/intermediate risk (stage I/II), patients with recurrence detected by imaging or CA-125 measurements tended to have shorter survival than patients with recurrence detected by physical examination (7 vs. 31+ months, P = 0.057). Multivariate analysis revealed that site of recurrence (vaginal vs. extravaginal, P < 0.01) and time to recurrence (> 1 year vs. ≤ 1 year, P = 0.01) were significant independent predictors of prolonged survival after recurrence.

Conclusion: In endometrial carcinoma, site of and time to recurrence are significant predictive factors of prolonged survival after recurrence, suggesting that early detection of recurrence by imaging studies and CA-125 measurements cannot improve prognosis. Although intensive follow-up using these methods may provide psychological reassurance to some patients, the use of these methods must be balanced against the wise use of limited health care resources.