Background: To identify prognostic indicators of local recurrence (LR) in patients with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast treated with breast conserving surgery (BCS) alone.
Methods: A retrospective study was conducted of all women with pure DCIS, diagnosed 1985-1999, referred for tertiary oncologic opinion in British Columbia, treated with BCS without adjuvant radiotherapy. Kaplan-Meier local control (LC) and breast cancer specific survival (BCSS) estimates for the entire group were plotted. Stratified analyses identified subgroups with high Kaplan-Meier 10-year LR. Cox multivariate modeling was used to assess predictors of LR. Kaplan-Meier BCSS rates were compared between two cohorts: those who experienced LR and those who did not have LR.
Results: A total of 460 women comprised the study cohort. Median follow-up was 9.4 years. The 15-year LC and BCSS rates were 82% and 97%, respectively. Stratified analyses of LR identified comedo histology, high nuclear grade, tumor size >4 cm or indeterminate size, and positive margins to be associated with significantly higher LR risk, with 10-year LR risks approximating 15-30%. The 10-year BCSS rates for the LR group were 94% compared with 99% for the NoLR group. On Cox regression modeling, high nuclear grade, the presence of comedocarcinoma, and positive margins were significant factors for higher risk of LR.
Conclusions: Women with DCIS treated with BCS alone had higher LR risk, and those with a LR were more likely to die of breast cancer. Optimal local treatment is mandatory to minimize the risk of breast cancer death for women with this curable disease.