Objective: the aim is to estimate the future lung cancer incidence in Poland and Finland based on forecasts on hypothetical changes in smoking habits.
Material and methods: data on population, lung cancer and smoking prevalence come from known sources. The simulation model utilized for forecasting was based on smoothing the smoking habit - specific risk ratios estimated for males and females in Europe.
Results: depending on the analyzed scenario in 2030 in Poland mortality rates among men would range from 8 to 125/10(5) and among women from 7 to 47/10(5); in Finland among men 5 to 60/10(5) and among women 4 to 22/10(5).
Conclusions: the results obtained clearly indicate that cutting down on the number of smokers translates directly into a considerable reduction of the lung cancer incidence rate.