With the aim of explaining the variations in microcystin (MC) concentrations during cyanobacterial blooms, we studied several Microcystis aeruginosa populations blooming in different freshwater ecosystems located in the same geographical area. As assessed by real-time PCR, it appeared that the potentially MC-producing cells (mcyB(+)) were predominant (70 to 100%) in all of these M. aeruginosa populations, with the exception of one population in which non-MC-producing cells always dominated. Apart from the population in the Grangent Reservoir, we found that the proportions of potentially MC-producing and non-MC-producing cells varied little over time, which was consistent with the fact that according to a previous study of the same populations, the intergenic transcribed spacer (ITS) genotype composition did not change (38). In the Grangent Reservoir, the MC-RR variant was the dominant microcystin variant throughout the bloom season, despite changes in the ITS composition and in the proportions of mcyB(+) cells. Finally, the variations in total MC concentrations (0.3 to 15 microg liter(-1)) and in the MC cellular quotas (0.01 to 3.4 pg cell(-1)) were high both between and within sites, and no correlation was found between the MC concentrations and the proportion of mcyB(+) cells. All of these findings demonstrate that very different results can be found for the proportions of potentially MC-producing and non-MC-producing cells and MC concentrations, even in M. aeruginosa populations living in more or less connected ecosystems, demonstrating the importance of the effect of very local environmental conditions on these parameters and also the difficulty of predicting the potential toxicity of Microcystis blooms.