[Forecast of the indicators on maternal and child health of China in 2020 using auto-regressive model]

Beijing Da Xue Xue Bao Yi Xue Ban. 2010 Apr 18;42(2):221-4.
[Article in Chinese]

Abstract

Objective: To forecast the indicators on maternal and child health of China in 2020.

Methods: Based on Surveillance data of the indicators on the maternal and child health in China since the 1990s, forecasting models were found using auto-regressive method, and the indicators on maternal and child health in China in 2020 were forecasted using the models after they had been tested and valued.

Results: Auto-regressive models on infant mortality rate (IMR), under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) and maternal mortality (MMR) were found. The models and their parameters passed statistical tests, and their mean absolute error was 5% or so and determination coefficients were all more than 90%.

Conclusion: The IMR of China in 2020 was forecasted to be 0.635%, the U5MR 0.737% and the MMR 22.21/100 000.

Publication types

  • English Abstract

MeSH terms

  • Child
  • China / epidemiology
  • Female
  • Forecasting / methods*
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Infant Mortality / trends*
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Maternal Mortality / trends*
  • Maternal-Child Health Centers / organization & administration*
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Pregnancy
  • Regression Analysis