A population biological approach to the collective dynamics of countries undergoing demographic transition

Abstract

Birth rates have been declining in higher-income countries since the middle of the 19th century. A growing number of other countries have entered this demographic transition to lower fertility, as socioeconomic development continues. Analyses of this demographic transition vary widely, but most analyze individual populations in isolation from others, and most come from fields outside the biological sciences. Here, we develop a population biological model of population dynamics in higher-income countries. Individual countries evolve through density-regulated growth, where gradual evolution toward higher population densities boosts productivity (and hence socioeconomic growth) through economics of agglomeration and scale, in turn reducing birth rates. The exchange of technology and capital between countries can further boost productivity gains in any given country, thus contributing to its demographic transition. As a result, countries can down-regulate one another's population growth through mutual improvements in productivity. The model is fitted to time series data on population size, GDP per capita, and birth rates for the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. The metapopulation dynamics are also characterized across a range of parameter values close to the fitted values. This work may help advance population biological approaches to understanding the implications of the fertility demographic transition for modern human populations. This is relevant to developing long-term predictions of the earth's total population size, which must be based upon a model that incorporates underlying mechanisms.