Predictive factors of pathologic complete response after neoadjuvant chemoradiation for rectal cancer

Ann Surg. 2009 Oct;250(4):582-9. doi: 10.1097/SLA.0b013e3181b91e63.

Abstract

Objective: This study evaluates factors associated with a pathologic complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiation for rectal cancer.

Summary background data: Approximately 20% of rectal cancer patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiation achieve pCR, which has been associated with decreased local recurrence and improved recurrence-free survival. Means of predicting pCR remain incompletely defined.

Methods: A total of 306 consecutive patients with stage II or stage III rectal cancer who underwent neoadjuvant chemoradiation then surgery between 1997 and 2007 were identified from a single-institution. Sixty-four patients with concurrent inflammatory bowel disease, hereditary colorectal cancer, other malignancy, urgent surgery, incomplete chemoradiation, or insufficient data were excluded. All patients received neoadjuvant 5-FU-based chemotherapy and external beam radiation. Histologic response was categorized as pCR or not-pCR, which defined the 2 study cohorts. Variables were analyzed by univariate and multivariate analysis with pCR as the dependent variable. Fisher exact test, chi2, Wilcoxon rank-sum, and logistic regression were used for analysis. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results: Of the total patients, 242 were studied, including 58 (24%) that achieved pCR. The 2 groups were statistically similar in terms of age, gender, body mass index, tumor differentiation, radiation dose, and pretreatment stage. On multivariate analysis, an interval ≥ 8 weeks between treatment completion and surgical resection was significantly associated with a higher rate of pCR, which correlated with decreased local recurrence and improved overall survival.

Conclusion: Despite traditional beliefs that certain patient and tumor factors influence pCR, an extended interval between completion of neoadjuvant therapy and surgery was the single most important determinant in achieving a pCR.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Antimetabolites, Antineoplastic / therapeutic use
  • Chi-Square Distribution
  • Female
  • Fluorouracil / therapeutic use
  • Humans
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Neoadjuvant Therapy
  • Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / prevention & control
  • Neoplasm Staging
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Rectal Neoplasms / drug therapy*
  • Rectal Neoplasms / pathology
  • Rectal Neoplasms / radiotherapy*
  • Rectal Neoplasms / surgery
  • Statistics, Nonparametric
  • Survival Rate
  • Treatment Outcome

Substances

  • Antimetabolites, Antineoplastic
  • Fluorouracil