Vascular risk factors are thought to be important for dementia. However, there is little evidence for a prospective association between cerebral blood flow and the risk of cognitive decline. Twenty-seven cognitively intact hypertensive patients aged 55 years and older with lacunar infarction or white matter lesions in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) underwent positron emission tomography (PET) to measure cerebral blood flow (CBF) and cerebral vascular reactivity (CVR). Cognitive function was assessed at baseline and 3 years later with the mini-mental state examination (MMSE). Patients whose MMSE score fell by more than three points were classified as having cognitive decline. Six patients showed cognitive decline. Baseline CBF in these patients was significantly lower than that of the 21 patients without cognitive decline (31.2+/-2.4 vs. 42.6+/-5.9 ml per 100 g min(-1), respectively; P<0.001). A moderate linear association was found between CBF and change in MMSE score over a 3-year period (r=0.59, P=0.001), not between CBF and baseline MMSE score. In contrast, no association between CVR and later cognitive decline was found. This study suggests that cerebral hypoperfusion is associated with later cognitive decline.