Predicting the risk of soybean rust in Minnesota based on an integrated atmospheric model

Int J Biometeorol. 2009 Nov;53(6):509-21. doi: 10.1007/s00484-009-0239-y. Epub 2009 Jun 14.

Abstract

To minimize crop loss by assisting in timely disease management and reducing fungicide use, an integrated atmospheric model was developed and tested for predicting the risk of occurrence of soybean rust in Minnesota. The model includes a long-range atmospheric spore transport and deposition module coupled to a leaf wetness module. The latter is required for spore germination and infection. Predictions are made on a daily basis for up to 7 days in advance using forecast data from the United States National Weather Service. Complementing the transport and leaf wetness modules, bulk (wet plus dry) atmospheric deposition samples from Minnesota were examined for soybean rust spores using a specific DNA test and sequence analysis. Overall, the risk prediction worked satisfactorily within the bounds of the uncertainty associated with the use of modeled 7-day weather forecasts, with more than 65% agreement between the model forecast and the DNA test results. The daily predictions are available as an advisory to the user community through the University of Minnesota Extension. However, users must take the actual decision to implement the disease management strategy.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Air Microbiology*
  • Atmosphere / analysis*
  • Basidiomycota / isolation & purification
  • Basidiomycota / physiology*
  • Computer Simulation
  • Glycine max / microbiology*
  • Glycine max / physiology*
  • Minnesota
  • Models, Biological*
  • Plant Diseases / microbiology*
  • Plant Diseases / prevention & control
  • Plant Diseases / statistics & numerical data
  • Risk Assessment / methods
  • Risk Factors
  • Systems Integration