Utilization of accident databases and fuzzy sets to estimate frequency of HazMat transport accidents

J Hazard Mater. 2009 Aug 15;167(1-3):374-82. doi: 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2009.01.097. Epub 2009 Feb 5.

Abstract

Risk assessment and management of transportation of hazardous materials (HazMat) require the estimation of accident frequency. This paper presents a methodology to estimate hazardous materials transportation accident frequency by utilizing publicly available databases and expert knowledge. The estimation process addresses route-dependent and route-independent variables. Negative binomial regression is applied to an analysis of the Department of Public Safety (DPS) accident database to derive basic accident frequency as a function of route-dependent variables, while the effects of route-independent variables are modeled by fuzzy logic. The integrated methodology provides the basis for an overall transportation risk analysis, which can be used later to develop a decision support system.

MeSH terms

  • Accidents / statistics & numerical data*
  • Accidents, Traffic
  • Databases, Factual*
  • Fuzzy Logic
  • Hazardous Substances*
  • Risk Assessment
  • Safety Management
  • Transportation*

Substances

  • Hazardous Substances