A model of exposure to rotavirus from nondietary ingestion iterated by simulated intermittent contacts

Risk Anal. 2009 May;29(5):617-32. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01193.x. Epub 2009 Jan 31.

Abstract

Existing microbial risk assessment models rarely incorporate detailed descriptions of human interaction with fomites. We develop a stochastic-mechanistic model of exposure to rotavirus from nondietary ingestion iterated by simulated intermittent fomes-mouth, hand-mouth, and hand-fomes contacts typical of a child under six years of age. This exposure is subsequently translated to risk using a simple static dose-response relationship. Through laboratory experiments, we quantified the mean rate of inactivation for MS2 phage on glass (0.0052/hr) and mean transfer between fingertips and glass (36%). Simulations using these parameters demonstrated that a child's ingested dose from a rotavirus-contaminated ball ranges from 2 to 1,000 virus over a period of one hour, with a median value of 42 virus. These results were heavily influenced by selected values of model parameters, most notably the concentration of rotavirus on fomes, frequency of fomes-mouth contacts, frequency of hand-mouth contacts, and virus transferred from fomes to mouth. The model demonstrated that mouthing of fomes is the primary exposure route, with hand mouthing contributions accounting for less than one-fifth of the child's dose over the first 10 minutes of interaction.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Disease Transmission, Infectious*
  • Environmental Exposure*
  • Humans
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Risk Assessment
  • Rotavirus Infections / transmission*
  • Sensitivity and Specificity
  • Stochastic Processes