Hierarchical models facilitate spatial analysis of large data sets: a case study on invasive plant species in the northeastern United States

Ecol Lett. 2009 Feb;12(2):144-54. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01270.x.

Abstract

Many critical ecological issues require the analysis of large spatial point data sets - for example, modelling species distributions, abundance and spread from survey data. But modelling spatial relationships, especially in large point data sets, presents major computational challenges. We use a novel Bayesian hierarchical statistical approach, 'spatial predictive process' modelling, to predict the distribution of a major invasive plant species, Celastrus orbiculatus, in the northeastern USA. The model runs orders of magnitude faster than traditional geostatistical models on a large data set of c. 4000 points, and performs better than generalized linear models, generalized additive models and geographically weighted regression in cross-validation. We also use this approach to model simultaneously the distributions of a set of four major invasive species in a spatially explicit multivariate model. This multispecies analysis demonstrates that some pairs of species exhibit negative residual spatial covariation, suggesting potential competitive interaction or divergent responses to unmeasured factors.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Bayes Theorem
  • Berberis / physiology
  • Celastrus / physiology*
  • Euonymus / physiology
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • New England
  • Population Density
  • Population Dynamics
  • Rosa / physiology