The Allee effect and infectious diseases: extinction, multistability, and the (dis-)appearance of oscillations

Am Nat. 2009 Jan;173(1):72-88. doi: 10.1086/593357.

Abstract

Infectious diseases that affect their host on a long timescale can regulate the host population dynamics. Here we show that a strong Allee effect can lead to complex dynamics in simple epidemic models. Generally, the Allee effect renders a population bistable, but we also identify conditions for tri- or monostability. Moreover, the disease can destabilize endemic equilibria and induce sustained oscillations. These disappear again for high transmissibilities, with eventually vanishing host population. Disease-induced extinction is thus possible for density-dependent transmission and without any alternative reservoirs. The overall complexity suggests that the system is very sensitive to perturbations and control methods, even in parameter regions with a basic reproductive ratio far beyond R(0) = 1. This may have profound implications for biological conservation as well as pest management. We identify important threshold quantities and attribute the dynamical behavior to the joint interplay of a strong Allee effect and infection.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Cats
  • Communicable Diseases / epidemiology*
  • Computer Simulation
  • Extinction, Biological*
  • Feline Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / transmission
  • Host-Pathogen Interactions*
  • Immunodeficiency Virus, Feline
  • Models, Biological*
  • Population Dynamics