Optimal Bayesian design for patient selection in a clinical study

Biometrics. 2009 Sep;65(3):953-61. doi: 10.1111/j.1541-0420.2008.01156.x. Epub 2008 Nov 14.

Abstract

Bayesian experimental design for a clinical trial involves specifying a utility function that models the purpose of the trial, in this case the selection of patients for a diagnostic test. The best sample of patients is selected by maximizing expected utility. This optimization task poses difficulties due to a high-dimensional discrete design space and, also, to an expected utility formula of high complexity. A simulation-based optimal design method is feasible in this case. In addition, two deterministic algorithms that perform a systematic search over the design space are developed to address the computational issues.

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Bayes Theorem*
  • Biometry / methods*
  • Clinical Trials as Topic / methods*
  • Computer Simulation
  • Models, Biological*
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Outcome Assessment, Health Care / methods*
  • Patient Selection*
  • Research Design