Model for end-stage liver disease can predict very early outcome after liver transplantation

Transplant Proc. 2008 Nov;40(9):2952-4. doi: 10.1016/j.transproceed.2008.09.023.

Abstract

Postoperative Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) values have never been assessed to predict very early (<1 week) death after liver transplantation (OLT). We retrospectively reviewed 275 consecutive OLTs performed in 252 recipients reported in a prospective database. We calculated the MELD score (pre-MELD) and consecutive postoperative MELD (post-MELD) scores computed daily during the first postoperative week and on days 15 and 30 after OLT. Post-MELD scores from nonsurviving recipients displayed on a scatterplot of immediate probability of death were adjusted to the best goodness-of-fit curve, and, finally, depicted graphically as a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Nonsurviving recipients showed higher post-MELD scores: day 1: 23.5 versus 16.6 (P = .05); day 3: 25.1 versus 12.5 (P = .000); day 5: 25.7 versus 11.8 (P = .000); and day 7: 22.1 versus 10.2 (P = .000). Overall comparisons were performed using a time-dependent general linear regression model, revealing higher post-MELD scores for nonsurviving recipients, irrespective of postoperative time (P = .002). The best goodness-of-fit curve was displayed when adjusting to a theoretical exponential regression curve calculated as follows: Probability of dying within the first week (%) = 3.36 x e(0.079 x (post-MELD)) (r = .89; P = .000). The area under the ROC curve was 0.783 (95% confidence interval, 0.630-0.935; P = .001). The model had a positive predictive value of 82.3%, a negative predictive value of 33.1%, and an accuracy of 79.2%. In conclusion, this study corroborated the suggestion that the MELD score may serve as a reliable tool to assess very early death after OLT.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Confidence Intervals
  • Databases, Factual
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Liver Failure / classification*
  • Liver Failure / surgery*
  • Liver Transplantation / mortality
  • Liver Transplantation / physiology*
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Postoperative Period
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Preoperative Care
  • Probability
  • ROC Curve
  • Reoperation / statistics & numerical data
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Survival Rate
  • Survivors
  • Treatment Failure
  • Treatment Outcome
  • Young Adult