Objective: We evaluated whether any short-form health survey [36 items] (SF-36) domain scale or component scores would predict exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) during a 1-year period.
Methods: In this prospective longitudinal study, the sample included 127 patients with spirometrically confirmed COPD who completed baseline assessments and > 80% of daily diary card entries during 1 year. Exacerbations were defined as >or= 2 days of worsened respiratory symptoms or as new use of corticosteroids or antibiotics. The predictive validity of baseline SF-36 scores was assessed by receiver operating characteristic analysis.
Results: The general health, mental health, and role-physical domain scales and mental component summary score discriminated between those with any versus no exacerbations. The general health domain score was the best predictor overall based on multiple criteria.
Conclusions: The SF-36 general health scale is potentially a reliable and valid predictor of exacerbation for up to 1 year in community-residing patients with COPD.