Disease extinction in the presence of random vaccination

Phys Rev Lett. 2008 Aug 15;101(7):078101. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.101.078101. Epub 2008 Aug 11.

Abstract

We investigate disease extinction in an epidemic model described by a birth-death process. We show that, in the absence of vaccination, the effective entropic barrier for extinction displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. Even a comparatively weak Poisson-distributed random vaccination leads to an exponential increase in the extinction rate, with the exponent that strongly depends on the vaccination parameters.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Communicable Diseases / epidemiology*
  • Epidemiologic Methods
  • Models, Biological*
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Poisson Distribution
  • Vaccination*