Biological invasions: deriving the regions at risk from partial measurements

Math Biosci. 2008 Oct;215(2):158-66. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2008.07.004. Epub 2008 Jul 24.

Abstract

We consider the problem of forecasting the regions at higher risk for newly introduced invasive species. Favourable and unfavourable regions may indeed not be known a priori, especially for exotic species whose hosts in native range and newly-colonised areas can be different. Assuming that the species is modelled by a logistic-like reaction-diffusion equation, we prove that the spatial arrangement of the favourable and unfavourable regions can theoretically be determined using only partial measurements of the population density: (1) a local 'spatio-temporal' measurement, during a short time period and, (2) a 'spatial' measurement in the whole region susceptible to colonisation. We then present a stochastic algorithm which is proved analytically, and then on several numerical examples, to be effective in deriving these regions.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Animals
  • Ecosystem*
  • Environment
  • Logistic Models
  • Models, Biological*
  • Nonlinear Dynamics
  • Population Density
  • Population Dynamics
  • Stochastic Processes