In order to classify the caregivers at high risk of increase in their burden early, linear discriminant analysis was performed to obtain an effective discriminant model for differentiation of the presence or absence of increase in caregiver burden. The data obtained by self-administered questionnaire from 193 caregivers of frail elderly from January to February of 2005 were used. The discriminant analysis yielded a statistically significant function explaining 35.0% (Rc=0.59; d.f.=6; p=0.0001). The configuration indicated that the psychological predictors of change in caregiver burden with much perceived stress (1.47), high caregiver burden at baseline (1.28), emotional control (0.75), effort to achieve (-0.28), symptomatic depression (0.20) and "ikigai" (purpose in life) (0.18) made statistically significant contributions to the differentiation between no increase and increase in caregiver burden. The discriminant function showed a sensitivity of 86% and specificity of 81%, and successfully classified 83% of the caregivers. The function at baseline is a simple and useful method for screening of an increase in caregiver burden among caregivers for the frail elderly at home.