Seir epidemiological model with varying infectivity and infinite delay

Math Biosci Eng. 2008 Apr;5(2):389-402. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2008.5.389.

Abstract

A new SEIR model with distributed infinite delay is derived when the infectivity depends on the age of infection. The basic reproduction number R0, which is a threshold quantity for the stability of equilibria, is calculated. If R0 < 1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and this is the only equilibrium. On the contrary, if R0 > 1, then an endemic equilibrium appears which is locally asymptotically stable. Applying a permanence theorem for infinite dimensional systems, we obtain that the disease is always present when R0 > 1.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Communicable Diseases / epidemiology*
  • Computer Simulation
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Disease-Free Survival
  • Epidemiology*
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Population Dynamics