Background: Lung cancer is the third most common cancer in men and women in Germany. Recently an increase of the incidence for women and a decline in men was reported. This study was set up to answer two questions: (1) Are these trends also seen inr Germany (Federal State of Schleswig-Holstein)? (2) How will lung cancer incidence develop in the future, taking demographic developments and actual trends into account?
Methods: Data were extracted from the population-based cancer registry of Schleswig-Holstein, while future trends were estimated.
Results: Data on 11 226 patients who had first been diagnosed with lung cancer and registered between 1999 and 2004 (mean age 67 years) formed the basis of this study The total incidence as well as the age-specific incidence had declined for men, while an increasing trends was recorded for women. Mortality showed similar trends. Applying current trends to the expected demographic development, the incidence will rise by 42% until 2020 and 25% in both men and women. Taking age- specific trends into account, an 8% reduction of the incidence in men and a 74% increase in women seem possible.
Conclusion: Our projections, together with the current epidemiological data, give important public health information on the incidence of lung cancer. While future burden on the health care system can be estimated, our projection alsoR stresses how dramatically this burden could be reduced by effective primary prevention with the aim of increasing the proportion of non-smokers in the population.