A stochastic dynamical systems view of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2008 Jul 28;366(1875):2545-60. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2008.0031.

Abstract

We provide a dynamical systems framework to understand the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and show that this framework is in many ways similar to that of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. A so-called minimal primitive equation model is used to represent the Atlantic Ocean circulation. Within this minimal model, we identify a normal mode of multidecadal variability that can destabilize the background climate state through a Hopf bifurcation. Next, we argue that noise is setting the amplitude of the sea surface temperature variability associated with this normal mode. The results provide support that a stochastic Hopf bifurcation is involved in the multidecadal variability as observed in the North Atlantic.