Detection and modelling of case clusters for urban leptospirosis

Trop Med Int Health. 2008 Apr;13(4):503-12. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3156.2008.02028.x. Epub 2008 Feb 27.

Abstract

Objective: To analyse the epidemiological profile of 488 cases of leptospirosis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil between 1997 and 2002, using a variety of methods of spatial epidemiology, to establish alert guidelines in general hospitals, which might be a tool to improve diagnosis and treatment of leptospirosis to reduce lethality rates.

Methods: Scan statistics identified six space-time clusters, which comprised a range of 2 to 28 cases per cluster. Generalized linear mixed models were used to evaluate risk factors for a cluster case which incorporated individual characteristics and spatial information on environmental and climactic factors in a single model frame.

Results: Cluster case events were associated with heavy rainfall (OR 3.71; 95% CI 1.83-7.51). The model did not identify socioeconomic or environmental covariates that significantly influence the risk of developing a cluster rather than non-cluster case.

Conclusion: Clustering of leptospirosis in this urban setting appears to be due to transmission during heavy rainfall.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Brazil / epidemiology
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Environment
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Leptospirosis / epidemiology*
  • Leptospirosis / transmission
  • Rain
  • Risk Factors
  • Space-Time Clustering
  • Urban Health