Potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis transmission in China

Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2008 Feb;78(2):188-94.

Abstract

Appraisal of the present and future impact of climate change and climate variability on the transmission of infectious diseases is a complex but pressing public health issue. We developed a biology-driven model to assess the potential impact of rising temperature on the transmission of schistosomiasis in China. We found a temperature threshold of 15.4 degrees C for development of Schistosoma japonicum within the intermediate host snail (i.e., Oncomelania hupensis), and a temperature of 5.8 degrees C at which half the snail sample investigated was in hibernation. Historical data suggest that the occurrence of O. hupensis is restricted to areas where the mean January temperature is above 0 degrees C. The combination of these temperature thresholds, together with our own predicted temperature increases in China of 0.9 degrees C in 2030 and 1.6 degrees C in 2050 facilitated predictive risk mapping. We forecast an expansion of schistosomiasis transmission into currently non-endemic areas in the north, with an additional risk area of 783,883 km(2) by 2050, translating to 8.1% of the surface area of China. Our results call for rigorous monitoring and surveillance of schistosomiasis in a future warmer China.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • China / epidemiology
  • Forecasting / methods
  • Greenhouse Effect
  • Humans
  • Models, Biological*
  • Models, Statistical
  • Population Dynamics
  • Risk Assessment
  • Schistosoma japonicum / pathogenicity*
  • Schistosomiasis japonica / epidemiology*
  • Schistosomiasis japonica / transmission
  • Snails / parasitology*
  • Temperature*
  • Time Factors