We investigated the incidence, risk factors and outcome of haemorrhagic cystitis (HC) in paediatric patients undergoing HSCT and the predictive value of BK viruria and viraemia for developing HC. Over a period of 54 months, 74 patients were recruited. The cumulative incidence of HC was 22%. Among 15 patients prospectively monitored for BK viruria and viraemia, four patients developed HC of grade > or =II. This group, which had two consecutive BK positive samples, showed a sensitivity of 100%, a specificity of 82%, a positive predictive value of 67%, and negative predictive value of 100% for developing HC. Analysed by a receiver-operator characteristic curve (ROC), a urine BK load >9 x 10(6) genomic copies/ml had a sensitivity of 95% and specificity of 90%; while a blood BK load >1 x 10(3) genomic copies/ml had a sensitivity of 40% and a specificity of 93% for HC, respectively. In univariate analysis, BK positivity was the only factor significantly associated with HC. After a median follow-up of 1.8 years, patients with HC showed a lower overall survival, 40 vs 65%, P 0.01, and a lower event-free survival, 42 vs 62%, P 0.03, compared to patients without HC. We conclude that BK detection in urine and/or plasma is a specific predictor for developing HC.