Analysis of time to a silent event whose occurrence is monitored with error, with application to mother-to-child HIV transmission

Stat Med. 2008 Oct 15;27(23):4637-46. doi: 10.1002/sim.3125.

Abstract

Inferences about the distribution of time to HIV infection in infants are complicated because infection is a silent event and imperfect diagnostic tests are used to detect its occurrence, leading to false-positive and false-negative results. Nonparametric likelihood approaches are computationally hampered by a large number of parameters and a possibly nonconcave likelihood function. To overcome these difficulties, we develop one-sample and regression methods based on profile likelihood and Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. The methods also provide a useful diagnostic for assessing the infection status of individual subjects, and are illustrated using results from a recent clinical trial for the prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Bias
  • Diagnostic Tests, Routine / statistics & numerical data
  • Female
  • HIV Infections / diagnosis*
  • HIV Infections / epidemiology
  • HIV Infections / transmission*
  • Humans
  • Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical / statistics & numerical data*
  • Markov Chains
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Statistics, Nonparametric
  • Time Factors