Background: Previous studies evaluating predictive factors for conversion from laparoscopic to open cholecystectomy have drawn conflicting conclusions. We evaluated objective preoperative variables to create an accurate, accessible risk score to predict conversion.
Methods: A retrospective review was performed of laparoscopic cholecystectomy patients at an urban tertiary care center. Seventy characteristics were subjected to bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify parameters that independently predict conversion to open cholecystectomy. A model was created based on this analysis.
Results: Laparoscopic cholecystectomy was performed on 1377 patients for benign gallbladder disease over a 71-month period. There were 112 (8.1%) conversions to open cholecystectomy. The correlation between the preoperative clinical diagnosis and pathologic diagnosis for acute and chronic cholecystitis was 48.6% and 94.6%, respectively. Multivariate analysis identified male gender, elevated white blood cell count, low serum albumin, ultrasound finding of pericholecystic fluid, diabetes mellitus, and elevated total bilirubin as independent predictors of conversion. These 6 factors were also associated with the pathologic diagnosis of acute cholecystitis. A model to calculate the risk for conversion was created with an area under the receiver operator curve of 0.83. The risk for conversion also can be estimated based on the number of factors identified present and ranged from 2% when 1 factor was present to 89% with 6 factors.
Conclusions: These results demonstrate that conversion to open cholecystectomy can be predicted based on parameters available preoperatively. Conversion is more likely in patients who have acute cholecystitis; however, the correlation between its clinical and pathologic diagnosis is poor. Improvements in the ability to determine the risk for conversion have important implications for surgical care.