In the present study, the distribution of the shelf life of cooked, cured meat products based on lactic acid bacteria growth and the distribution of the time to cause health risks based on Listeria monocytogenes growth were studied. Growth models, developed and validated on cooked meat products, were used to predict the growth of microorganisms. Temperature data were obtained from retail and home refrigerators. Distribution predictions were conducted by two approaches (time-temperature profiles and Monte Carlo simulation). Time-temperature profiles were more appropriate to be used, because Monte Carlo simulation overestimated the growth of L. monocytogenes. Shelf life was greatly influenced by storage temperature, but initial microbial load had a smaller effect. The expiration date of cooked meat products might be based on only the growth of the spoilage microorganisms, and only when product contamination with L. monocytogenes cell concentrations is high does a product fraction pose health risks for consumers. Sensitivity analysis confirmed that storage temperature and temperature variability were the most important factors for the duration of shelf life. Distributions of shelf life and time to cause health risks give valuable information on the quality and safety of cooked meat products and may be used as practical tools by meat processors.