A mathematical model of the Great Lakes total phosphorus budgets indicates that a 1 milligram per liter effluent restriction for point sources would result in significant improvement in the trophic status of most of the system. However, because large areas of their drainage basins are devoted to agriculture or are urbanized, western Lake Erie, lower Green Bay, and Saginaw Bay may require non-point source controls to effect significant improvements in their trophic status.