Background: We investigated whether the predictive accuracy of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) for Alzheimer-type dementia (AD) in a clinical setting is dependent on age and the definition of MCI used.
Method: Non-demented subjects older than 40 (n=320) who attended a memory clinic of a university hospital were reassessed 5 years later for the presence of AD. MCI was diagnosed according to the criteria of amnestic MCI, mild functional impairment (MFI), ageing-associated cognitive decline (AACD), and age-associated memory impairment (AAMI). The main outcome measure was the area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Analyses were conducted on the entire sample and on subgroups of subjects aged 40-54, 55-69 and 70-85 years.
Results: A diagnosis of AD at follow-up was made in 58 subjects. Four of them were in the 40-54 age group, 29 in the 55-69 age group and 25 in the 70-85 age group. The diagnostic accuracy in the entire sample was low to moderately high with AUCs ranging from 0.56 (AACD) to 0.75 (amnestic MCI). A good predictive accuracy with an AUC >0.80 was only observed in subjects aged 70-85 using the criteria of amnestic MCI (AUC=0.84).
Conclusions: The predictive accuracy of MCI for AD is dependent on age and the definition of MCI used. The predictive accuracy is good only for amnestic MCI in subjects 70-85 years. As subjects with prodromal AD are often younger than 70, the usefulness of MCI as predictor of AD in clinical practice is limited.