The aim of this work was to develop a shelf-life prediction model of lipid-containing bakery products. To this purpose (i) the temperature dependence of the oxidation rate of bakery products was modeled, taking into account the changes in lipid physical state; (ii) the acceptance limits were assessed by sensory analysis; and (iii) the relationship between chemical oxidation index and acceptance limit was evaluated. Results highlight that the peroxide number, the changes of which are linearly related to consumer acceptability, is a representative index of the quality depletion of biscuits during their shelf life. In addition, the evolution of peroxides can be predicted by a modified Arrhenius equation accounting for the changes in the physical state of biscuit fat. Knowledge of the relationship between peroxides and sensory acceptability together with the temperature dependence of peroxide formation allows a mathematical model to be set up to simply and quickly calculate the shelf life of biscuits.