Stochastic models for the spread of HIV in a mobile heterosexual population

Math Biosci. 2007 Jul;208(1):98-124. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2006.09.024. Epub 2006 Nov 10.

Abstract

An important factor in the dynamic transmission of HIV is the mobility of the population. We formulate various stochastic models for the spread of HIV in a heterosexual mobile population, under the assumptions of constant and varying population sizes. We also derive deterministic and diffusion analogues for these models, using a convenient rescaling technique, and analyze their stability conditions and equilibrium behavior. We illustrate the dynamic behavior of the models and their approximations via a range of numerical experiments.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Computer Simulation
  • Endemic Diseases
  • Female
  • HIV Infections / epidemiology
  • HIV Infections / mortality
  • HIV Infections / transmission*
  • Heterosexuality*
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Markov Chains
  • Models, Biological*
  • Population Density
  • Population Dynamics
  • Stochastic Processes*
  • Survival Rate