Monte Carlo simulations of anomalous ion channeling in near-lattice-matched AlInN/GaN bilayers allow an accurate determination of the strain state of AlInN by Rutherford backscattering or channeling. Although these strain estimates agree well with x-ray diffraction (XRD) results, XRD composition estimates are shown to have limited accuracy, due to a possible deviation from Vegard's law, which we quantify for this alloy. As the InN fraction increases from 13% to 19%, the strain in AlInN films changes from tensile to compressive with lattice matching predicted to occur at [InN] = 17.1%.