Purpose: To identify predictors of successful smoking abstinence.
Method: A prospective analysis was conducted of a group of 687 individuals (mean age +/- SD 49.5 +/- 14.6 years, range 20 to 81 years) comprising 518 males and 169 females, who attempted to stop smoking by participating in smoking cessation programs provided by Kamakura Health Center in Japan from September 2002 to September 2003. They were provided with free nicotine patches and referred to medical clinics for follow-up. Baseline characteristics such as age, gender, program settings, daily cigarette consumption and time to the first cigarette of the day were recorded at the start of the program. Smoking status was confirmed at the one-year follow up. In addition, the participants were asked whether they had used free nicotine patches or follow-up nicotine patches and gum. The relationships between characteristics used to assess smoking abstinence rates were first analyzed using a chi2 test. Logistic regression analysis was then employed to identify independent predictors of smoking abstinence at the one-year follow up.
Results: A total of 687 smokers who participated in the program were registered at the start of this study. Out of these, 528 (76.9%) were eligible because their smoking status could be confirmed at the one-year follow up. The rate of smoking abstinence at the one-year follow up was 39.2%. No significant differences were observed in the rates of smoking abstinence among the participants at the one-year follow up based on gender, daily cigarette consumption or time to the first cigarette of the day. When participants were over fifty years of age (abstinence rate 47.0%), were provided with the program conducted at the Health Center (abstinence rate 50.3%), used free nicotine patches (abstinence rate 50.7%) and received follow-up nicotine replacement therapy (abstinence rate 57.7%). they were significantly more likely to have stopped smoking than the reference groups. With the above-mentioned four predictors, adjusted odds ratios of smoking abstinence observed in the logistic regression analysis were 1.68, 1.80, 2.01 and 1.79, respectively.
Conclusion: We found a 39.2% smoking abstinence rate at one-year follow up among smokers who were treated with free nicotine patches in the smoking cessation program by the Kamakura Health Center. It was indicated that predictors of smoking abstinence are age (over fifty years), location (at the Health Center), use of free nicotine patches and receipt of follow-up nicotine replacement therapy.