Early determination of the reproductive number for vector-borne diseases: the case of dengue in Brazil

Trop Med Int Health. 2006 Mar;11(3):332-40. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3156.2006.01560.x.

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate a new method of deriving the reproductive number for vector-borne diseases from the early epidemic curves for vector-borne diseases with incubations in the vectors and in the hosts.

Method: We applied the model to several dengue epidemics in different climatic regions of Brazil: Brasilia, Belém, Fortaleza, Boa Vista.

Results: The new method leads to higher estimates of the reproductive number than previous models.

Conclusion: At present, Aedes aegypti densities, the meeting of more compatible strains of viruses and mosquitoes, may lead to re-emergence of urban yellow fever epidemics.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aedes / physiology*
  • Animals
  • Brazil / epidemiology
  • Climate
  • Dengue / epidemiology*
  • Dengue / transmission
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Humans
  • Insect Vectors / physiology*
  • Models, Biological
  • Reproduction / physiology*
  • Stochastic Processes