Aspects of climate change prediction relevant to crop productivity

Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2005 Nov 29;360(1463):1999-2009. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2005.1748.

Abstract

Projected changes in surface climate are reviewed at a range of temporal scales, with an emphasis on tropical northern Africa--a region considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Noting the key aspects of 'weather' affecting crop yield, we then consider relevant and projected change using output from a range of state of the art global climate models (GCMs), and for different future emission scenarios. The outputs from the models reveal significant inter-model variation in the change expected by the end of the twenty-first century for even the lowest IPCC emission scenario. We provide a set of recommendations on future model diagnostics, configurations and ease of use to close further the gap between GCMs and smaller-scale crop models. This has the potential to empower countries to make their own assessments of vulnerability to climate change induced periods of food scarcity.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
  • Review

MeSH terms

  • Africa, Northern
  • Africa, Western
  • Climate*
  • Crops, Agricultural / growth & development*
  • Crops, Agricultural / standards
  • Crops, Agricultural / supply & distribution
  • Food Supply*
  • Forecasting
  • Humans
  • Models, Biological*
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Rain
  • Temperature