Random-effects models in investigating the effect of vitamin A in childhood diarrhea

Ann Epidemiol. 2006 Apr;16(4):241-7. doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2005.08.007. Epub 2005 Nov 21.

Abstract

Purpose: By adopting more appropriate and powerful statistical methods that fully exploit longitudinal structure, we re-analyze and extend previously published results from a large community trial to investigate the effect of vitamin A supplementation on the prevalence and severity of diarrhea in young children.

Methods: Generalized linear mixed models were used to allow for repeated measures in a reanalysis of a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled community trial conducted in a cohort of children in northeastern Brazil during 1 year. The response variable was weekly number of days with diarrhea for each child, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods were used to estimate model parameters.

Results and conclusions: Random effects suitably accounted for the underlying heterogeneity between and within children, and our longitudinal analysis shows a significant beneficial effect of vitamin A supplementation that was inconclusive in previously reported simple summary analyses of these data. Risk for diarrhea infection was estimated to be 1.57 times greater for a child administered a placebo as opposed to vitamin A (95% credible interval, 1.17-2.12). Additionally, we identified previously unreported temporal effects in these data, showing a decreasing daily probability of diarrhea for both groups during the trial and treatment-time interaction.

MeSH terms

  • Bayes Theorem
  • Brazil / epidemiology
  • Child, Preschool
  • Data Interpretation, Statistical
  • Diarrhea, Infantile / epidemiology
  • Diarrhea, Infantile / prevention & control*
  • Double-Blind Method
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Linear Models
  • Longitudinal Studies
  • Male
  • Time Factors
  • Vitamin A / administration & dosage*

Substances

  • Vitamin A