Objective: To assess the impact on renal transplant patients and graft survival of clinical, laboratory, and echocardiographic parameters commonly measured prior to surgery.
Patients: Forty-seven consecutive diabetics with preoperative echocardiograms at the time of transplantation.
Methods: Clinical history, standard chest roentgenogram, electrocardiogram, blood tests, echocardiograms, and HLA testing at baseline; follow-up from 2 to 7 years with periodic reassessment of graft function.
Results: Patient survival did not appear to be influenced by age, sex, or type of allograft. A history of either myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, or angina was present in 15 patients with 3-year survival of 50% (72% if not present, p less than 0.05). Histocompatibility testing did not impact on survival. Serum sodium, potassium, calcium, phosphate, and calcium-phosphate product did not discern different survival groups. A hematocrit greater than 30% was present in 15 patients with 3-year survival of 43% (73% if not present, p less than 0.05). Greater than 10% antibody sensitization of the recipient resulted in a 3-year survival of 38% in eight patients (68% if not present, p less than 0.05). Radiologic evidence of cardiomegaly or congestive heart failure and standard electrocardiographic evidence for left ventricular hypertrophy or strain did not impact on survival. Echocardiographic measurements of left ventricular end-diastolic diameter, posterior wall thickness, or ejection fraction were also not predictive. Increased end-systolic diameter (10 patients, 30% 3-year survival versus 69%, p less than 0.05) and decreased velocity of circumferential fiber shortening (11 patients, 45% 3-year survival versus 71%, p less than 0.05) both appeared to be related to survival. Increased accuracy of prediction could be obtained by adding risk factors so that a history of coronary artery disease and increased end-systolic diameter predicted 3-year survival of 42% versus 82% if neither was present. In terms of graft survival, no clinical, radiographic, or electrocardiographic result yielded predictive information. Among the laboratory tests, only highly antibody-sensitized patients (eight patients, 0% 3-year survival versus 66% 3-year survival, p less than 0.001) showed different survival patterns. Echocardiographic elevated end-systolic diameter predicted a significantly (p less than 0.001) decreased graft survival (3-year survival 33% versus 63%).
Conclusion: Preoperative prediction of patient and graft survival in diabetic renal transplantation may be enhanced by echocardiographic assessment of systolic load and function. For patients with normal systolic function, whose hematocrit is below 30%, with preformed antibodies less than 10%, renal transplantation has an excellent prognosis; invasive cardiac procedures are not likely required. Since these risk factors are likely additive, a high-risk group may be identified. These latter patients should undergo coronary angiography.