Purpose: Overall US breast cancer mortality rates are higher among black women than white women, and the disparity is widening. To investigate this disparity, we examined incidence data and changes in mortality trends according to age, year of death (calendar period), and date of birth (birth cohort). Calendar period mortality trends reflect the effects of new medical interventions, whereas birth cohort mortality trends reflect alterations in risk factors.
Patients and methods: Incidence data were obtained from the Connecticut and National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries and mortality data were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics. Changes in age, period, and cohort mortality trends were analyzed with Poisson regression.
Results: For both races, breast cancer incidence rates for localized and regional disease diverged in the late 1970s. Almost concurrently, overall mortality rates diverged among blacks and whites. For both races, mortality increases with age, but blacks have higher mortality at age younger than 57. The calendar period curves revealed declining mortality for whites over the entire study period. For blacks, calendar period mortality declined until the late 1970s, and then sharply increased. After 1994, calendar period mortality declined for both. For women born between 1872 and 1950, trends in mortality were similar for blacks and whites. For women born after 1950, mortality decreased more rapidly for blacks.
Conclusion: The widening racial disparity in breast cancer mortality seems attributable to calendar period rather than birth cohort effects. Thus, differences in response or access to newer medical interventions may largely account for these trends.