Aims: Increased levels of neurohormonal markers, including the N-terminal fragment of pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP), have been shown to be of prognostic significance in patients with heart failure or coronary heart disease (CHD). The aim of this study was to study the predictive value of NT-pro-BNP for coronary events in a middle-aged population of men at work.
Methods and results: A nested case-control study was performed in a large cohort of over 10 000 men at work (aged 35-59) after a median follow-up of 2.66 years. In total, 66 individuals who developed coronary events were matched on a 3-to-1 basis to 198 controls free of coronary events during follow-up. Besides clinical characteristics and conventional cardiac risk factors, NT-pro-BNP (electrochemiluminiscence assay, Roche diagnostics) and serum creatinine levels were determined. In univariable analysis, cases were more frequently current smokers and diabetics, had more frequently a history of CHD, and had higher levels of total cholesterol and systolic blood pressure (SBP), and lower levels of HDL cholesterol. A highly significant difference (P < 0.0001) was noted for NT-pro-BNP levels between cases (median 48.5 pg/mL, interquartile range 26.4-116.6 pg/mL) and controls (30.0 pg/mL, 19.5-47.6 pg/mL). In multivariable conditional logistic regression analysis, NT-pro-BNP remained strongly associated with risk for coronary events [third vs. first tertile, odds ratio (95% CI) 3.24 (1.18-8.85)], independent of body mass index, smoking, diabetes, SBP, total and HDL cholesterol, creatinine, and previous CHD.
Conclusion: NT-pro-BNP is a strong predictor of coronary events in men at work after a relatively short period, even after adjustment for conventional risk factors.